# The God of Baccarat

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## Saturday, January 12, 2013

### Baccarat, Tips and Strategies from the World's Best Players

Experts Jeff Colt and Justine Priestley teach you how play the high stakes game of Baccarat in this informative and easy-to-understand video.

### Baccarat Statistics

## Introduction

Baccarat is a game steeped in superstition. The vast majority of players keep careful track of the shoe history, either on paper or with the aid of screens that show every hand since the shoe began. There are various ways of recording this information. The companies that market the screens that display the shoe history present it in various ways, according to the most popular methods of trying to define patterns.Before going further, let me give my usual comment on notation. When referring to an actual bet, I use capital letters. When referring to the player playing the game, I use lower case. I invite the rest of the world to follow this convention, to help avoid confusion.

For those who don't know me, let me take a moment to say that all this effort at trying to predict the next hand is a waste of time. For all practical purposes, the odds are the same for every hand, and the past history does not matter. Now before the perfectionists out there write to me, yes, I know if you had the use of a computer, a card counter could make computer-perfect decisions according to the composition of the remaining cards, which would very rarely result in an advantage on some bets. However, that is not what I'm talking about it. I'm saying that trying to find a pattern in past Player and Banker wins is as useless as predicting the next color in roulette (on a fair wheel) according to past reds and blacks.

Although I personally don't play baccarat, I have wondered for years about some of the tables in those displays of the shoe history. The staff at the Venetian has been very helpful in helping me understand, so that I may enlighten the rest of the world. So, with the introductions out of the way, let's get started. Here is a picture of a typical sign, seen at the Venetian. There are various components of display, which I will address individually.

## Bead Plate

This section above is called the "bead plate." It used to be that players could buy a tray with cubes with sides noting Player, Banker, and Tie wins. Wins are recorded as follows:

- Blue = Player win
- Red = Banker win
- Green = Tie win

## Big Road

The next section, pictured above, is called the "Big Road." This primarily keeps track of Player and Banker wins. Tie and pair wins are also noted with slashes and dots. To be specific, a tie is noted with a green line through the previous Player or Banker win. A Player pair is noted with a blue dot in the lower right corner of the hand it occurred in. A Banker pair with a red dot in upper left. In the interest of simplicity, in this example there were only Player and Banker wins. Much like in the Bead Plate, the player starts in the upper left, as well as marking Player wins in blue, and Banker wins in red. However, instead of a solid circle, with a Chinese character in the middle, the Big Road has only the blue and red outlines of circles.

Unlike the Bead Plate, in the Big Road the player starts at the top of a new column with each change in Player and Banker winning. Note the grid is six rows deep. In the event there are seven or more consecutive Player or Banker wins, the results will move to the right, creating what is known as a dragon tail. In this example that never happens, as there was never more than four consecutive wins on the same side.

## Big Eye Boy

With the next table, it is no longer so obvious what is going on, and it is here where I started to need help. As mentioned before, baccarat players are a very superstitious bunch. While the strategies they use to find patterns can be a complicated topic, one basic truth is they like predictability and repeating patterns. For example, if the last 12 hands were BBBPPPBBBPPP, I would bet that everybody at the table would bet on the Banker the next hand. Note how wins happen in groups of three. The Big Eye Boy table is useful in gauging how repetitive the shoe is. Red entries are a sign of repetition, and blue entries are a sign of a chaotic, "choppy" shoe. It is important to note that in the Big Eye Boy table, blue and red are not associated with Player and Banker wins, as they are on the previous two tables.

The first entry in the Big Eye Boy table is the hand after the first entry in the second column of the Big Road, so that there is enough information to judge if a pattern is developing or not. Here is where the air starts to get thin, so pay attention. Every entry in the Big Eye Boy table, as well as the next two tables, will refer to a specific entry in the Big Road. Each entry in the Big Eye Boy is recorded as follows:

- If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road,
then compare the previous two columns in the Big Road. If they are the
same in depth, then record a red circle in the Big Eye Boy. If they
are not, then record a blue circle.

- If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous
hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell to the left of the newly
created entry in the Big Road with the cell directly above that one. If
these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both Banker, or both
blank; then mark a red in the Big Eye Boy. Otherwise, mark a blue.

In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move one cell to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.

In the event the Big Road forms a dragon tail, for purposes of the Big Eye Boy as well as the Small Road and Cockroach Pig, assume that the Big Road is infinitely deep, and ask yourself what would have happened under that assumption.

Note that if the Big Road consisted entirely of an alternating pattern of x Player wins with x Banker wins, then the Big Eye Boy would be entirely red.

To help with this part, I explain below every entry in the Big Eye Boy table that follows. I put the results in Excel so you could refer to the exact points in the grid I'm referring to.

For example, the first entry shows cell A1 on the Big Eye Boy table. This corresponds to the same hand represented in cell C1 of the Big Road table. Since cell C1 is the beginning of a new column, we check if the previous two columns are equal in length. They are, so we color the Big Eye Boy red for cell A1.

Big Eye Boy — Play by Play | |||
---|---|---|---|

Big Eye Boy Cell | Big Road Cell | Color | Reason |

A1 | C1 | Red | Columns A and B equal in length |

B1 | C2 | Blue | B1 and B2 don't match |

B2 | D1 | Blue | Columns B and C unequal in length |

B3 | E1 | Blue | Columns C and D unequal in length |

B4 | E2 | Blue | D1 and D2 don't match |

C1 | E3 | Red | D2 and D3 match |

C2 | E4 | Red | D3 and D4 match |

D1 | F1 | Blue | Columns D and E unequal in length |

E1 | G1 | Blue | Columns E and F unequal in length |

E2 | HI | Red | Columns F and G equal in length |

E3 | I1 | Red | Columns G and H equal in length |

F1 | I2 | Blue | H1 and H2 don't match |

F2 | J1 | Blue | Columns H and I unequal in length |

G1 | J2 | Red | H1 and H2 don't match |

H1 | J3 | Blue | H2 and H3 don't match |

H2 | K1 | Blue | Columns I and J unequal in length |

I1 | K2 | Red | J1 and J2 match |

I2 | K3 | Red | J2 and J3 match |

I3 | L1 | Red | Columns J and K equal in length |

I4 | L2 | Red | K1 and K2 match |

J1 | M1 | Blue | Columns K and L unequal in length |

J2 | N1 | Blue | Columns L and M unequal in length |

J3 | N2 | Blue | M1 and M2 don't match |

K1 | N3 | Red | M2 and M3 match |

L1 | O1 | Blue | Columns M and N unequal in length |

M1 | O2 | Red | N1 and N2 match |

N1 | P1 | Blue | Columns N and O unequal in length |

O1 | P2 | Red | O1 and O2 equal |

O2 | Q1 | Red | Columns O and P equal in length |

P1 | R1 | Blue | Columns P and Q unequal in length |

Q1 | S1 | Red | Columns Q and R equal in length |

R1 | S2 | Blue | R1 and R2 don't match |

S1 | S3 | Red | R2 and R3 match |

T1 | T1 | Blue | Columns R and S unequal in length |

U1 | T2 | Red | S1 and S2 match |

U2 | T3 | Red | S2 and S3 match |

V1 | U1 | Red | Columns S and T equal in length |

W1 | U2 | Red | T1 and T2 match |

X1 | V1 | Red | Columns T and U equal in length |

Y1 | V2 | Red | U1 and U2 match |

Z1 | W1 | Blue | Columns U and V unequal in length |

Z2 | X1 | Blue | Columns V and W unequal in length |

AA1 | Y1 | Red | Columns W and X equal in length |

AB1 | Y2 | Blue | X1 and X2 don't match |

AC1 | Y3 | Red | X2 and X3 match |

AD1 | Z1 | Blue | Columns X and Y unequal in length |

AD2 | AA1 | Blue | Columns Y and Z unequal in length |

AD3 | AA2 | Blue | AA1 and AA2 don't match |

AD4 | AB1 | Blue | Columns Z and AA unequal in length |

AD5 | AC1 | Blue | Columns AA and AB unequal in length |

AD6 | AC2 | Blue | AB1 and AB2 don't match |

AE1 | AC3 | Red | AB2 and AB3 match |

AF1 | AD1 | Blue | Columns AB and AC unequal in length |

AF2 | AE1 | Blue | Columns AC and AD unequal in length |

AF3 | AE2 | Blue | AD1 and AD2 don't match |

AG1 | AE3 | Red | AD2 and AD3 match |

AG2 | AE4 | Red | AD3 and AD4 match |

AH1 | AF1 | Blue | Columns AD and AE unequal in length |

AH2 | AG1 | Blue | Columns AE and AF unequal in length |

AI1 | AH1 | Red | Columns AF and AG equal in length |

AI2 | AI1 | Red | Columns AG and AH equal in length |

AI3 | AJ1 | Red | Columns AH and AI equal in length |

AJ1 | AJ2 | Blue | AI1 and AI2 don't match |

AK1 | AJ3 | Red | AI2 and AI3 match |

AL1 | AK1 | Blue | Columns AI and AJ unequal in length |

AL2 | AL1 | Blue | Columns AJ and AK unequal in length |

## Small Road

The next table, in the bottom left of the display, is the "Small Road." The Small Road works exactly like the Big Eye Boy, except it skips the column to the left of the current column in the Big Road. To have enough information to go on, the Small Road must wait until the entry after the first entry in the third column of the Big Road. Here is exactly how the Small Road is recorded.

- If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road, then compare the first and third columns to the left of the new column in the Big Road. If they are the same in depth, then record a red circle in the Small Road. If they are not, then record a blue circle.
- If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell
*two cells to the left*of the newly created entry in the Big Road with the cell*directly above*that one. If these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both Banker, or both blank; then mark a red in the Small Road. Otherwise, mark a blue.

In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move two cells to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.

The Small Road in the sign pictured was too big to fit in the grid, so the first four columns dropped off. They would have been BBRRBR.

## Cockroach Pig

The next table, in the bottom left of the display, is "Cockroach Pig." The Cockroach works exactly like the Small Road, except it skips two columns to the left of the current column in the Big Road. To have enough information to go on, the Cockroach Pig must wait until the entry after the first entry in the fourth column of the Big Road. Here is exactly how the Cockroach Pig is recorded.

- If the hand in question causes a new column in the Big Road then compare the first and fourth columns to the left of the new column in the Big Road. If they are the same in depth, then record a red circle in the Cockroach Pig. If they are not, then record a blue circle.
- If the hand in question is the same outcome as the previous
hand (skipping ties), then compare the cell three cells to the left of
the newly created entry in the Big Road with the cell directly above
that one. If these two cells are the same, whether both Player, both
Banker, or both blank; then mark a red in the Cockroach Pig. Otherwise,
mark a blue.

In other words, consider the latest entry in the Big Road. Then, move three cells to the left. Then, move up. If the move up does not result in a change, mark red, if it does, mark blue.

## Other Statistics

Finally, the above picture shows the upper right part of the display. The left part shows overall shoe statistics for how often each bet won. This is not a very realistic example, as I put in Player and Banker wins only, for purposes of example. The right part shows what will happen on the Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig according to whether the next hand is a Player or Banker win.

### Baccarat Card Counting Strategy

In either blackjack or baccarat a good first step
in developing a card counting strategy is to determine the effect of
removing any given card from the game. The following table shows the
number of banker, player, and tie wins resulting from the removing of
one card in an 8-deck shoe. The card removed is indicated in the left
column.

The next table puts these number is some perspective by indicating
the probability of a banker, player, and tie win according to the card
removed.

The next table shows the house edge of each bet by card removed.

The next table shows the effect on the house edge of each bet
according to the card removed. A negative number indicates removal is
bad for the player, positive indicates removal is good.

The next table multiplies the above numbers by ten million.

To adapt this information to a card counting strategy the player
should start with three running counts of zero. As each card is seen as
it leaves the shoe the player should add the point values of that card
to each running count. For example if the first card to be played is an 8
then the three running counts would be: banker=-502, player=533,
tie=6543. Of course the player does not have to keep a running track of
all three counts. In fact the point values for the banker and player are
nearly oposite of each other. A high running count for the banker would
mean a corresponding low count for the player, and vise versa.

In order for any given bet to become advantageous the player should divide the running count by the ratio of cards left in the deck to get the true count. A bet hits zero house edge at the following true counts:

The final table indicates the expected revenue per 100 bets and a
$1000 wager every time a positive expected value occured. Please
remember that this table assumes the player is able to keep a perfect
count and the casino is not going to mind the player only making a bet
once every 475 hands of less.

I hope this section shows that for all practical purposes

Card Removed | Number | ||
---|---|---|---|

Banker Win | Player Win | Tie Win | |

1 | 2259266202814720 | 2198201626637560 | 468838163231312 |

2 | 2259390347439480 | 2198279181695870 | 468636463548240 |

3 | 2259415336955130 | 2198240411263230 | 468650244465232 |

4 | 2259565639560830 | 2198132965463160 | 468607387659600 |

5 | 2259056540713470 | 2198626760121850 | 468622691848272 |

6 | 2259230629854970 | 2198942636434940 | 468132726393680 |

7 | 2259288625471740 | 2198847351781120 | 468170015430736 |

8 | 2258880877214840 | 2198299582316670 | 469125533152080 |

9 | 2259013211112320 | 2198292198535290 | 469000583035984 |

10 | 2259094649086970 | 2198163195365880 | 469048148230736 |

Card Removed | Probability | ||
---|---|---|---|

Banker Win | Player Win | Tie Win | |

1 | 0.458613 | 0.446217 | 0.09517 |

2 | 0.458638 | 0.446233 | 0.095129 |

3 | 0.458643 | 0.446225 | 0.095132 |

4 | 0.458673 | 0.446203 | 0.095123 |

5 | 0.45857 | 0.446303 | 0.095127 |

6 | 0.458605 | 0.446367 | 0.095027 |

7 | 0.458617 | 0.446348 | 0.095035 |

8 | 0.458534 | 0.446237 | 0.095229 |

9 | 0.458561 | 0.446235 | 0.095203 |

10 | 0.458578 | 0.446209 | 0.095213 |

Card Removed | House Edge | ||
---|---|---|---|

Banker | Player | Tie | |

1 | 0.010535 | 0.012396 | 0.143467 |

2 | 0.010527 | 0.012405 | 0.143836 |

3 | 0.010514 | 0.012418 | 0.14381 |

4 | 0.010463 | 0.01247 | 0.143889 |

5 | 0.010662 | 0.012267 | 0.143861 |

6 | 0.010692 | 0.012238 | 0.144756 |

7 | 0.010662 | 0.012269 | 0.144688 |

8 | 0.010629 | 0.012298 | 0.142942 |

9 | 0.010602 | 0.012326 | 0.14317 |

10 | 0.01056 | 0.012369 | 0.143083 |

Card Removed | House Edge | ||
---|---|---|---|

Banker | Player | Tie | |

0 | 0.000019 | -0.000018 | 0.000513 |

1 | 0.000044 | -0.000045 | 0.000129 |

2 | 0.000052 | -0.000054 | -0.000239 |

3 | 0.000065 | -0.000067 | -0.000214 |

4 | 0.000116 | -0.00012 | -0.000292 |

5 | -0.000083 | 0.000084 | -0.000264 |

6 | -0.000113 | 0.000113 | -0.00116 |

7 | -0.000083 | 0.000082 | -0.001091 |

8 | -0.00005 | 0.000053 | 0.000654 |

9 | -0.000023 | 0.000025 | 0.000426 |

Card Removed | Count Adjustment | ||
---|---|---|---|

Banker | Player | Tie | |

0 | 188 | -178 | 5129 |

1 | 440 | -448 | 1293 |

2 | 522 | -543 | -2392 |

3 | 649 | -672 | -2141 |

4 | 1157 | -1195 | -2924 |

5 | -827 | 841 | -2644 |

6 | -1132 | 1128 | -11595 |

7 | -827 | 817 | -10914 |

8 | -502 | 533 | 6543 |

9 | -231 | 249 | 4260 |

Average | 0 | 0 | 0 |

In order for any given bet to become advantageous the player should divide the running count by the ratio of cards left in the deck to get the true count. A bet hits zero house edge at the following true counts:

- Banker: 105791
- Player: 123508
- Tie: 1435963

Penetration | Positive Expectation | ||
---|---|---|---|

Banker | Player | Tie | |

90 percent | 0.000131 | 0.000024 | 0.000002 |

95 percent | 0.001062 | 0.000381 | 0.000092 |

98 percent | 0.005876 | 0.003700 | 0.002106 |

Penetration | Expected Profit | ||
---|---|---|---|

Banker | Player | Tie | |

90 percent | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |

95 percent | $0.20 | $0.06 | $0.15 |

98 percent | $2.94 | $1.77 | $11.93 |

**baccarat is not a countable game**. For more information on a similar experiment I would recomment The Theory of Blackjack by Peter A. Griffin. Although the book is mainly devoted to blackjack he has part of a chapter titled 'Can Baccarat Be Beaten?' on pages 216 to 223. Griffin concludes by saying that even in Atlantic City, with a more liberal shuffle point than Las Vegas, the player betting $1000 in positive expectation hands can expect to profit 70 cents an hour.### Baccarat Odds

## Baccarat is one of the oldest and most popular games in casinos all over the world. It is especially popular among high-rollers and Asian gamblers. In Macau, baccarat is extremely dominant. Although the game seems serious and elegant, it is really as simple as betting on the flip of a coin.

## Format

There are three types of baccarat tables:**Big Table Baccarat**is played in a snooty roped off area to separate itself from the other games. The players are usually very well dressed and the table minimums are often high. The regular baccarat table is about the size of a craps table with 3 casino dealers and up to 12 or 14 players. Each player, including the player dealing, may still bet on either the player or the banker but it is customary for the dealer to bet on the banker.

The deal will rotate around the table, much like the dice rotate around the craps table. If a player does not want to deal they may pass the shoe to the next player. The same person will keep dealing as long as the banker keeps winning. The person dealing will put two cards, face down, tucked under the shoe, and give the player with the greatest bet on the player the other two cards, face down. This player then looks at the cards and then gives them back to the player who is dealing. Then the player who is dealing will turn over the cards and one of the casino dealers will announce the totals. Depending on the totals, the dealer may then instruct the person dealing the cards to deal a third card. Finally the dealers will pay winning wagers and collect losing ones out of the dealer's tray. The player who actually deals is not assuming any financial responsibility of the other players bets, unlike pai gow, and is just turning over cards.

**Mini baccarat**has the same rules are big table baccarat. However, unlike the game at the big table, the dealer turns over all the cards, making for a much faster game. The odds are exactly the same as those of the big table, assuming the same number of decks. Mini baccarat is sometimes dealt from a six-deck shoe, changing the odds slightly. It can usually be found in the main casino areas.

**Midi baccarat**is the same as mini baccarat, except the size of the table is larger, and it is usually found in the high-limit rooms, as opposed to the main casino floor.

## Rules

- Usually eight decks of cards are used.
- Cards are given point values as follows: Ace = 1, 2-9 = pip value, 10 and face cards = 0.
- At the start of a new shoe, the dealer will turn over one card. This will determine how many cards the dealer will burn, according to the baccarat value, except a 10 or face card will result in 10 cards burned.
- The cut card will be placed 16 cards from the bottom of the shoe. When the cut card appears, the dealer will finish that hand, play one more hand, and then start a new shoe. If the cut card comes out instead of the first card, the dealer will finish that hand, and then start a new shoe.
- Play begins by all players betting either on the "player", "banker", or a tie. At some tables you may also bet on a player pair and banker pair.
- After all bets are down, the dealer gives two cards each to the player and the banker. The score of the hand is the right digit of the total of the cards. For example, if the two cards were an 8 and 7, then the total would be 15 and the score would be a 5. The scores will always range from 0 to 9 and it is impossible to bust.
- A third card may or may not be dealt to either the player or the dealer depending on the following rules.:

- If either the player or the banker has a total of an 8 or a 9 they both stand.
**This rule overrides all other rules.** - If the player's total is 5 or less, then the player hits, otherwise the player stands.
- If the player stands, then the banker hits on a total of 5
or less. If the player does hit then use the chart below to determine
if the banker hits (H) or stands (S):

Baccarat Drawing Rules Banker's

ScorePlayer's Third Card 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 S S S S S S S S S S 6 S S S S S S H H S S 5 S S S S H H H H S S 4 S S H H H H H H S S 3 H H H H H H H H S H 2 H H H H H H H H H H 1 H H H H H H H H H H 0 H H H H H H H H H H

- If either the player or the banker has a total of an 8 or a 9 they both stand.
- The score of the player and dealer are compared; the winner is the one that is greater. Winning bets on the banker pay 19 to 20 (even money less a 5% commission), winning bets on the player pay 1 to 1, winning bets on a tie usually pay 8 to 1. In the event of a tie, banker and player bets will push.
- On winning banker bets, the player will be paid even money. Meanwhile, the dealer will keep track of the 5% commission owed with small laminated markers. At the end of each shoe, or when a player wants to leave, the dealer will collect all commissions owed.

## Odds

### 8 Decks

The following return tables show the possible outcomes of the banker, player, and tie bets for an 8-deck game. As the lower left cells in each table show, the house edge is 1.06% on the banker bet, 1.24% on the player bet, and 14.36% on the tie.Banker Bet — 8 Decks | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Banker wins | 0.95 | 2,292,252,566,437,888 | 0.458597 | 0.435668 |

Player wins | -1 | 2,230,518,282,592,256 | 0.446247 | -0.446247 |

Tie | 0 | 475,627,426,473,216 | 0.095156 | 0 |

Total | 4,998,398,275,503,360 | 1 | -0.010579 |

Player Bet — 8 Decks | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Banker wins | -1 | 2,292,252,566,437,888 | 0.458597 | -0.458597 |

Player wins | 1 | 2,230,518,282,592,256 | 0.446247 | 0.446247 |

Tie | 0 | 475,627,426,473,216 | 0.095156 | 0 |

Total | 4,998,398,275,503,360 | 1 | -0.012351 |

Tie Bet — 8 Decks | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Banker wins | -1 | 2,292,252,566,437,888 | 0.458597 | -0.458597 |

Player wins | -1 | 2,230,518,282,592,256 | 0.446247 | -0.446247 |

Tie | 8 | 475,627,426,473,216 | 0.095156 | 0.761248 |

Total | 4,998,398,275,503,360 | 1 | -0.143596 |

Pair Bets — 8 Decks | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Pair | 11 | 6448 | 0.074699 | 0.821687 |

No pair | -1 | 79872 | 0.925301 | -0.925301 |

Total | 86320 | 1 | -0.103614 |

### 6 Decks

The following return tables show the possible outcomes of the banker, player, and tie bets for a 6-deck game. As the lower left cells in each table show, the house edge is 1.06% on the banker bet, 1.24% on the player bet, and 14.44% on the tie.Banker Bet — 6 Decks | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Banker wins | 0.95 | 403095751234560 | 0.458653 | 0.43572 |

Player wins | -1 | 392220492728832 | 0.446279 | -0.446279 |

Tie | 0 | 83552962932288 | 0.095069 | 0 |

Total | 878869206895680 | 1 | -0.010558 |

Player Bet — 6 Decks | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Banker wins | -1 | 403095751234560 | 0.458653 | -0.458653 |

Player wins | 1 | 392220492728832 | 0.446279 | 0.446279 |

Tie | 0 | 83552962932288 | 0.095069 | 0 |

Total | 878869206895680 | 1 | -0.012374 |

Tie Bet — 6 Decks | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Banker wins | -1 | 403095751234560 | 0.458653 | -0.458653 |

Player wins | -1 | 392220492728832 | 0.446279 | -0.446279 |

Tie | 8 | 83552962932288 | 0.095069 | 0.76055 |

Total | 878869206895680 | 1 | -0.144382 |

Pair Bets — 6 Decks | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Pair | 11 | 3588 | 0.073955 | 0.813505 |

No pair | -1 | 44928 | 0.926045 | -0.926045 |

Total | 48516 | 1 | -0.11254 |

### 1 Deck

The following return tables show the possible outcomes of the banker, player, and tie bets for a single deck game. As the lower left cells in each table show, the house edge is 1.01% on the banker bet, 1.29% on the player bet, and 15.75% on the tie.Banker Bet — 1 Deck | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Banker wins | 0.95 | 6737232640 | 0.459624 | 0.436643 |

Player wins | -1 | 6548674432 | 0.44676 | -0.44676 |

Tie | 0 | 1372227328 | 0.093615 | 0 |

Total | 14658134400 | 1 | -0.010117 |

Player Bet — 1 Deck | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Banker wins | -1 | 6737232640 | 0.459624 | -0.459624 |

Player wins | 1 | 6548674432 | 0.44676 | 0.44676 |

Tie | 0 | 1372227328 | 0.093615 | 0 |

Total | 14658134400 | 1 | -0.012864 |

Tie Bet — 1 Deck | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Banker wins | -1 | 6737232640 | 0.459624 | -0.459624 |

Player wins | -1 | 6548674432 | 0.44676 | -0.44676 |

Tie | 8 | 1372227328 | 0.093615 | 0.748923 |

Total | 14658134400 | 1 | -0.157461 |

Pair Bets — 1 Deck | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |

Pair | 11 | 78 | 0.058824 | 0.647059 |

No pair | -1 | 1248 | 0.941176 | -0.941176 |

Total | 1326 | 1 | -0.294118 |

## Reduced Commission Baccarat

A less than 5% commission on winning banker bets has been known to happen. For years the Horseshoe in Las Vegas offered a 4% commission on their big table game. For a short time in 1989 the Sahara offered 0% commission. The Betfair Internet casino offers a 2.75% commision in their "Zero Lounge." The following table shows the expected value on the banker bet according to the number of decks and commission.Reduced Commission Baccarat | |||
---|---|---|---|

Commission | 1 Deck | 6 Decks | 8 Decks |

5.00% | -1.012% | -1.056% | -1.058% |

4.00% | -0.552% | -0.597% | -0.599% |

3.00% | -0.092% | -0.139% | -0.141% |

2.75% | 0.022% | -0.024% | -0.026% |

0.00% | 1.286% | 1.237% | 1.235% |

## 9 to 1 Tie Bet

The tie has been known to pay 9 to 1 at some casinos. For examle Binion's Horseshoe in Las Vegas used to, and the Bodog online casino pays 9 to 1. Here is the expected value on the tie bet if it pays 9 to 1.- 8 decks: -4.844%
- 6 decks: -4.931%
- 1 deck: -6.385%

## Egalite Bets

I have heard that some casinos in London offer "egalite" bets on specific ties, by the total of the tie. For example, a 5-5 tie pays 110 to 1. The following table shows the probability and return for each bet, based on eight decks.Egalite Bets — Eight Decks | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

Tie | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |

9 | 80 | 55,146,054,060,032 | 0.011033 | -0.106348 |

8 | 80 | 54,879,416,675,072 | 0.010979 | -0.110669 |

7 | 45 | 101,717,538,899,968 | 0.020350 | -0.063899 |

6 | 45 | 96,170,001,308,416 | 0.019240 | -0.114952 |

5 | 110 | 39,684,046,743,808 | 0.007939 | -0.118732 |

4 | 120 | 36,294,133,463,040 | 0.007261 | -0.121401 |

3 | 200 | 22,250,510,129,408 | 0.004452 | -0.105243 |

2 | 225 | 20,006,606,104,576 | 0.004003 | -0.095412 |

1 | 215 | 20,499,217,668,352 | 0.004101 | -0.114150 |

0 | 150 | 28,979,901,420,544 | 0.005798 | -0.124527 |

## Riding Trends

Every baccarat table will have plenty of score cards and pencils for the players to keep track of the outcome of every hand. Most players will do so religiously and carefully analyze their card for trends as the winning hand switches back and forth from the banker to the player. This is a big waste of time! The smart player will bet on the banker every time and leave the score cards alone.## Calculator

### Baccarat Martingale Strategy

The Martingale system is one of the oldest betting systems around. It has existed for over 300 years and its supposed success lies in giving you the statistical edge for making a consistent profit. The

**Baccarat system**is an attempt to

**guarantee you win overall, by implementing a system of doubling and then redoubling**up on bets. If a gambler places his initial bet of $5 and loses, the method according to the

**Martingale System**is to then double that bet to $10. If the better encounters another loss than doubling again would mean the next bet was $20. This continues until a win eventually occurs and all the money is made back plus of course a little extra.

The system, if it was adopted for the game of Baccarat and assuming a series of 5 losses in a row would go as follows:

- Bet Number 1 $5

- Bet Number 2 $10

- Bet Number 3 $20

- Bet Number 4 $40

- Bet Number 5 $80

*Martingale System*would dictate that this next bet be $160 pushing your total investment or stake at the casino up to $315. If you won at this point, you would receive twice what you bet, so $320 would be handed back making an overall profit of $5. At this stage you would go back to bet number 1 and begin the procedure again. Perfect! This is an undeniably perfect system provided you have the initial funds to see it through. The same betting system works well in games such as roulette.

The story does not end there though. Casinos, realizing that this betting system guarantees you make your money back plus a small profit have applied caps to betting sizes in the form of table maximums.

**This eliminates guaranteed chance of success using the**

__Martingale System__as you are no longer able to make all your previously wagered money back with one win.Let’s look more closely as to why table limits sabotage guaranteed success by going back to our Baccarat betting example above. What if you weren’t to win at this point (we had reached bet number 6 of $160), or even the next time (bet number 7 of $320). By now you have invested $635 at your table. Still having not won you would be looking to make bet number 8 which would be $640 (double bet number 7). If, for arguments sake, the table limit was set at $1000 a bet this size would not be allowed as your total stake would pass the limit set at $1,275.

So you’ve reached the level where you are no longer able to double up. Instead you make the biggest bet possible which would be the difference between the maximum table limit and the amount you’ve already wagered. In this instance that figure would be $365. Hurray a win, but of course the payout of $730 leaves an overall loss of $270 having wagered $1000 in total.

Of course it is

**possible to see short term success**with the

**Martingale System**. So long as you do not reach the table limit, the system is fail safe. It can only be used in games when bets pay 1:1 which is why Baccarat and Roulette are ideal but just bear it in mind that once the table limit has been reached, it is no longer possible to recoup all the previously wagered money in one go.

### Baccarat House Edge

#
__
Winning Baccarat Strategy__

**Beat the casino using our professional Baccarat Strategy.**

**Baccarat**is one of the simplest casino card games and whilst having a reputation for being a glamorous game for rich gamblers, has now become accessible to everyone through online casinos. As well as being simple, it is also a game which offers a low house edge - only 1.06% on the best bet. The low house edge makes it easy to beat the casino using a professional winning Baccarat strategy.

##
**Baccarat Rules**

**Baccarat Rules**

Play begins with two hands of two cards
being dealt on the table: the banker's and the player's.
The player must then bet on which hand they think has a value
closest to 9 or can also choose to bet on the hands being a tie.
Face cards and 10s have a value of 0; aces are worth 1 and all
other cards are worth their face value. If the value of the two
cards totals 10 or over, then the first digit of the total is
discarded. For example, if a 8 and a 6 are showing, the 1 is
eliminated and the value becomes 4, not 14. In some
situations a third card may be dealt. There is a series of
conditions for when the player and/or the banker may or may not
stand or hit. These are compulsory rules which the betters do
not have an influence on using any Baccarat Strategy.

Once the bets have been made, the dealer will
turn over the cards and if your hand is closest to nine you will
have beat the casino. A winning bet on the player having the better hand pays out
two times your original bet, a winning bet on the banker
pays out two times your original bet minus a 5% commission and a
winning bet on a tie will generally pay 8 to 1 or 9 to 1 odds.
If you bet on either the dealer or player and the result is a
tie, your bet will be returned to you and you.

Once the outcome has been decided and the
winnings distributed, a new phase of play will begin and the
player will try again to beat the casino using their Baccarat
Strategy.

##
**
Winning
Baccarat
Strategy**

**Winning Baccarat Strategy**

The house edge when
playing Baccarat is detailed in the following table:

Baccarat Odds |
||

Bet |
Probability of Winning |
House Edge |

Bank |
45.84% |
1.06% |

Player |
44.61% |
1.23% |

8:1 Tie |
9.54% |
14.12% |

9:1 Tie |
9.54% |
4.57% |

Regardless of
whether the tie pays 8:1 or 9:1, it should always be avoided and if you
are looking to easily beat the casino with little risk when playing
Baccarat, our recommendation is to always bet on the banker and
use the

__. This is a system of how much money to wager on each hand and works as follows:__**1-3-2-6 winning Baccarat strategy**
On the first hand bet 1 unit. If you win
bet 3 units on the next hand. If you win the second hand,
bet 2 units on the third hand and if you win this, bet 6 units
on the fourth hand. If the fourth bet wins you have beat
the casino and will
collect 12 units of which 10 are profit. If you lose at
any point begin the system again with 1 unit.

The great feature of this winning Baccarat strategy is that for a
potential profit of 10 units, you are at no time risking more
than 2 units. If you lose the first bet, you lose 1 unit.
If you win the first bet but lose the second, you've lost 2
units. If you win the first two hands but lose the third,
you've actually made a profit of 2 units. If you win the
first three hands but lose the fourth, you won't have beat the
casino but will at least break even.

### Baccarat - Studying Patterns

Studying Patterns :

Studying patterns does not work in Baccarat. It also doesn't
work in Roulette, Sic Bo, or any other casino game. You simply cannot study
probability because it is unpredictable.

However, there is still hope for those who want to win. In
this article, we will be examining some of the strategies designed to help you
play more professionally.

Four Simple
Ways to Win When Playing Baccarat :

1) Almost always bet on the Banker! It has the best odds.
Occasionally, you may want to bet on the player, and this is fine. However,
almost never bet on the tie because the odds are very low!

2) Set a budget. Never chase losses, especially when you
can't afford to lose that money.

3) Have fun. If you get nervous, restless, or bored, you
will start betting too much, and you will start losing.

4) Bet what you can afford to lose. If you don't care about
losing, you have a much better chance of winning. The only times I ever win are
when I don't care about losing!

In baccarat it is not uncommon to win 3 or 4 consecutive
decisions. This is what would happen if you aim to exploit such streaks by
letting your winnings multiply.

Round: Bet 1 unit.
If you win leave your bet and your win on the table.

Round: Bet 2
units. If you win there are 4 units on the table.

Round: Bet 4
units. Win again and you collect 8 units, a net win of 7 units for a one-unit
wager.

Round: Start over.
Bet 1 unit.

Perhaps you want to push your luck and go for four
consecutive wins, collecting 16 units. But consider that you might give back
your gains. Then again, if the fourth round indeed turns out to be a loser,
you've lost only one unit of the money you brought to the table, so maybe going
for a 16 unit win is worth the risk. You decide.

The main thing is to set win and loss exit points. Decide
how much money you can afford to risk in total and how much of a win you'd be
happy with. Quit as soon as you reach one or the other of those limits.

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